November 23, 2005: NFL
Commentary, Week 11
By White Russian
Brett Favre (pronounced "fawv-ruh")
The Green Bay quarterback who laid down for Michael
Strahan and will probably never retire is looking more and more like Kerry
Collins of 2004 this season with his 1 for 1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions
(18 touchdowns / 17 interceptions). Last season Collins finished with 21 touchdowns
and 20 interceptions. Collins, meanwhile, has cut down enough on his interceptions
to lead to suspician that Favre (pronounced "fawv-ruh") is really
Collins and Collins is really Favre (pronounced "fawv-ruh").
College Football Notes
The
Diesel notes that Reggie Bush scored almost 900 smallworld points in USC's
win over Fresno State (294 yards rushing / 68 yards receiving + punt returns
and kickoff returns) and that his performance has guaranteed him the Heisman.
There seems to be a trend by teams to go with Sandman's XBOX strategy of electing to kick off when winning the coin toss to begin the game. Michigan went with this plan against their bitter rival Ohio State. Michigan did not win the game.
Speaking of Michigan vs. Ohio State, Brent Musberger was a month off when he began his broadcast. As the camera scanned a busy parking lot filled with crazed fans, Musberger proclaimed, "October 19, 2005. A beautiful day for an ancient rivalry and a little tailgating..." The game was played on November 19.
And speaking of rivalries, Rivalry Week, which is spanning several weeks, is possibly the best time to watch college football. Every team proclaims that their rivalry is the best. Sometime in the night before the Virginia Tech at Virginia game, someone painted a "T" on the 50 yard line, to turn Virginia's "V" into Virginia Tech's "VT." To name a few, Oregon State vs. Oregon is the "Civil War", Cal vs. Stanford is the "Big Game", Alabama vs. Auburn is the "Iron Bowl", Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia is the "Backyard Brawl", Mississippi vs. Mississippi State is the "Egg Bowl", and Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma is the "Bedlam Game".
Why are some college rules significantly different than professional rules? Two of the biggest are the one foot in bounds for a reception in college ball and the stopping of the clock to move the chains when the offense gets a first down. It seems that when you are in college, you would want to play by the same rules as the pros, so as to ease the transition in the event you make it to the next level. During college would be a much better time to begin learning to get both feet in bounds for a reception to count. Clock management is dramatically different when the clock stops to move the chains. College quarterbacks would be much better served by having to manage a game under the same circumstances they may face in the pros.
Rushing Analysis
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The shutting down of prominent running backs seems to be on the increase this season. This week Steven Jackson was held to 6 yards on 12 carries, and one of those carries went for 6 yards. That was the total output for the St. Louis running game, as there were no other rushers. And this was in a game against Arizona, a team not known to be a powerhouse. Another big name held down was Curtis Martin, who rushed for just 7 yards on 4 carries. As a team, the Jets only ran for a total of 22 yards against Denver.
Earlier this season, in week 7 versus Philadelphia, LaDainian Tomlinson was held to 7 yards on 17 carries, with his longest carry being 7 yards, meaning that without that one carry he gained 0 yards on 16 carries. In week 3 versus Philadelphia, LaMont Jordan ran for 19 yards on 16 carries (longest carry was 14 yards, meaning he ran for 5 yards on 15 carries without that one). In week 6 versus Washington, Priest Holmes gained 18 yards on 14 carries (his longest being 9 yards). Twice this season Brian Westbrook has been held to under 20 rushing yards. In week 8, Clinton Portis was held to 9 yards. In week 2, Jamal Lewis was held to 9 yards.
Teams have combined for surprisingly low rushing totals this season. A deeper look into the numbers basically just underscores the importance of the rushing game. In a typical week about half the teams will rush for over 100 yards. Of those teams two-thirds will win. Not surprisingly, when a team outrushes their opponent, they have a much higher chance of winning. Through 11 weeks, the win-loss record for teams that outgained their opposition is 124 wins against 36 losses, for a .775 winning percentage. In week 9 and in week 3 the team that outran their opponent went 13 and 1, and in week 2, the team that outran their opponent won 15 and only lost 1.
By contrast, it is still possible to rush for few yards and win. Minnesota, in week 10, rushed as a team for a mere 12 yards and still won the game. Incredibly, Philadelphia has been held to under 30 yards three times and actually won two of those games. 17 times this season, a team has been held to under 35 total yards rushing, the lowest being St. Louis' 6 yards this week. Of those 17 times, the team held to under 35 won only 4 (Philadelphia being 2 of them).
18 times this season, a team has rushed for 200 or more total yards. Of those 18 times, only twice did the team rushing for 200 or more lose the game, with 211 rushing yards being the highest total for a losing team.
Fantasy Notes
This
was shootout week, with first placed White Russian's Cincinnati going head
to head against second placed Sandman's Indianapolis. The two teams did not
disappoint as both defenses decided to stay home. With the big guns kind of
cancelling each other out, the difference in scoring ended up being at tight
end, kicker and defense, giving White Russian the edge this week.
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